Many have been asking this question since last December, since when Bitcoins appear to know only one direction – downwards. Some even predict a “death-spiral” to 0! Moreover, also Initial Coin Offerings, short ICOs, that were still highly praised early this year, can’t find investors anymore. If you only look at this, you sure get the impression there’s some truth to it.

However, Blockchain is much more than that. When you look towards Asia for instance, you will find many blockchain projects that are already successfully “up and running”. Also, in the US and Europe many good projects are shaping up: In health, for the supply chain, as passport systems identifying products or persons. Identity Management is the new buzz word here. The potential impact of blockchain is immense and strongly bottling up. Within the media and entertainment industry, I know about some fine projects to change the eco-system.

Some got delayed because they wanted to raise their funds via an ICO – and now are looking for other sources and will start next year. So, ICO is truly dead? I doubt it, at least not in the longer perspective. It got killed when, after the first highly successful ICOs, many shabby projects flooded the market with investors losing most of their investments. More cautious analysis of projects and new rules will eventually cause a turnaround. The advantages of the model are just too promising to refrain from using it in long run.

With bitcoins it’s pretty much the same. Their numbers of coins within one currency are strictly limited, this avoids inflation. However, by introducing other crypto currencies, over 1,000 today, this positive affect got distorted, some bank analysts state. Well, when you look at bitcoins, you’ll see that today’s value is still above the year 2017 average, therefore there remains a strong possibility for bitcoins to rise again. It’s all about trust and how to create – or destroy it.

However, I would prefer another scenario. I would prefer, if volatility of the cryptos would stop and the valuable changes would stay in moderate corridors. Then, at last, cryptos can be used as a normal currency. Who pays his everyday goods with cryptos or who accepts them under the threat of immense value gains or losses over the next few days or weeks? Stable currencies, that would be a big step forward! I fear, that’s only wishful thinking.

What about the Bitcoin “Death-Spiral”? Of course, nobody can rule that out completely. However, at least in the long run, this could be for the benefit of competing currencies.

Photo by Thought Catalog on Unsplash

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Dieter Brockmeyer is a media industry and digitalization expert, initiator and organizer of MCMS Congress bringing together media regulators and TV executives from across Europe. He writes regular columns for DIPLOMATIC WORLD and DIPLOMATIC SOCIETY, authored books and wrote numerous articles in printed magazines. From 2014 to 2018 he initiated and headed the Global Media Innovator for Diplomatic Council. Since November 2018 he is Commissioner Global Media and Entertainment at the newly formed "think and do tank" International Commission of Diplomacy and member of the management board of Global Diplomatic Council, both in The Hague, Netherlands.

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